Deal Making During Conflicts: Why Smart Investors Continue to Close Deals Even When the World Feels Uncertain
- Dr Allen Nazeri DDS MBA
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
When geopolitical tensions escalate, whether in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or elsewhere, markets tend to react quickly. Headlines turn negative, stock markets fluctuate, and many business leaders instinctively pause major decisions.
But here is something that experienced dealmakers understand:
M&A rarely stops during periods of conflict.
In fact, some of the most strategic acquisitions occur precisely when others become hesitant.
Understanding the dynamics of Deal Making During Conflicts is essential for founders, investors, and executives who want to make thoughtful long-term decisions rather than reacting to short-term geopolitical noise.
While conflicts may create uncertainty, they also reshape the opportunity landscape—and often in ways that favor disciplined investors.
Deal Making During Conflicts: History Shows Deals Continue
If we look back over the past several decades, major geopolitical events have never permanently halted deal activity.
During the Gulf War in the early 1990s, cross-border acquisitions slowed temporarily but quickly rebounded. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, markets initially froze but strategic acquisitions resumed within months. Even during the COVID-19 crisis—when global economies were effectively shut down, M&A activity came roaring back in less than a year.
Why?
Because corporate acquisitions are not based on headlines. They are based on long-term strategic planning.
Most acquisitions are evaluated on a five-to-ten-year horizon. A temporary geopolitical event, even a serious one, rarely changes the long-term fundamentals of a strong company.
That is why seasoned investors continue Deal Making During Conflicts, even while others remain on the sidelines.
Strategic Buyers Often Accelerate Deal Making During Conflicts
Interestingly, strategic buyers, large corporations seeking growth through acquisition—often become more active during uncertain markets.
Why would that be?
When markets are optimistic and capital is abundant, competition for attractive companies becomes intense. Valuations rise quickly and sellers have multiple options.
During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, however, some buyers hesitate. This creates a window of opportunity for well-capitalized strategic acquirers.
I have seen this repeatedly in the M&A world. When markets become cautious, the buyers with strong balance sheets often step forward more confidently. They recognize that acquiring a high-quality company during a moment of hesitation can create tremendous long-term value.
In many cases, Deal Making During Conflicts becomes less about speed and more about discipline.
The strongest buyers are not reacting emotionally to headlines—they are evaluating strategic assets.
Private Equity Capital Does Not Stop Flowing
Another important factor that keeps Deal Making During Conflicts active is the structure of private equity funds.
Private equity firms operate on investment cycles. Capital raised from investors must be deployed within a certain time period—typically three to five years.
That means billions of dollars in committed capital must still be invested regardless of geopolitical headlines.
As a result, private equity groups continue pursuing acquisitions, particularly in sectors with stable demand such as:
Healthcare services
Medical technology
Business services
Engineering and manufacturing
Software and automation
These industries provide predictable revenue streams and strong long-term fundamentals.
For investors with patient capital, temporary geopolitical instability rarely changes the underlying attractiveness of these sectors.
Certain Industries Remain Extremely Resilient Conflicts
One of the most important things to understand about Deal Making During Conflicts is that different sectors respond differently to geopolitical tension.
Some industries—such as tourism or discretionary retail—may experience temporary slowdowns. However, other sectors remain remarkably resilient.
Healthcare is a perfect example.
Demand for healthcare services does not disappear because of geopolitical tensions. In fact, healthcare systems must continue operating regardless of what is happening in global politics.
Similarly, sectors related to cybersecurity, logistics, automation, and defense often see increased investment activity during times of geopolitical instability.
From an M&A perspective, the capital does not disappear—it simply flows toward industries that provide stability and strategic importance.
Conflicts Can Create Attractive Valuation Opportunities
One of the most overlooked aspects of Deal Making During Conflicts is how it can impact valuation dynamics.
When markets are overly optimistic, acquisition multiples can become inflated due to intense competition among buyers.
Periods of uncertainty, however, tend to introduce more discipline into the market.
This does not necessarily mean that valuations collapse. Rather, deals may be structured more creatively to balance risk between buyers and sellers.
Common structures during uncertain markets include:
Earn-outs tied to future performance
Majority recapitalizations with management rollover equity
Minority investments with growth capital
Structured payments over time
These structures allow both parties to move forward with a transaction while sharing risk and future upside.
For many founders, this approach can be particularly attractive because it allows them to take liquidity off the table while still maintaining a meaningful stake in the company’s future growth.
As many entrepreneurs say in the M&A world, it is often better to own a smaller piece of a much larger pie.
The Importance of Thinking Long-Term
One of the biggest mistakes business owners make during uncertain times is assuming they must wait for “perfect” market conditions before pursuing a transaction.
But perfect conditions rarely exist.
Interest rates fluctuate. Elections introduce policy uncertainty. Global conflicts appear and fade. Economic cycles rise and fall.
Yet strong companies continue to grow through all of it.
Successful investors understand that long-term value creation is rarely determined by short-term geopolitical events.
Instead, it depends on:
strong management teams
scalable business models
recurring revenue streams
defensible market positions
When those fundamentals exist, Deal Making During Conflicts can actually become a strategic advantage.
Experienced Advisors Help Navigate Uncertainty
Periods of geopolitical tension highlight the value of experienced advisors who understand both market dynamics and deal structure.
In uncertain environments, successful transactions often depend on careful planning, disciplined negotiation, and creative structuring.
Advisors help buyers and sellers navigate questions such as:
How should valuation expectations be adjusted?
What deal structure best balances risk and reward?
How should financing be structured in volatile markets?
How can a competitive process still be maintained?
Most importantly, advisors help ensure that decisions are based on strategy rather than emotion.
Why Deal Making During Conflicts Can Be an Opportunity
History has consistently shown that some of the most successful acquisitions occur during moments of uncertainty.
When others hesitate, disciplined investors find opportunities.
For founders, this can translate into meaningful advantages:
securing liquidity for retirement or diversification
bringing in a strategic partner to accelerate growth
reducing personal financial risk
positioning the company for a larger exit in the future
Rather than viewing geopolitical conflict solely as a barrier to transactions, experienced dealmakers often view it as a moment to think strategically and act deliberately.
In Summary
Geopolitical conflicts, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, inevitably create uncertainty in global markets. But uncertainty does not eliminate opportunity.
In reality, Deal Making During Conflicts continues because long-term investors focus on fundamentals rather than headlines.
Strategic buyers, private equity firms, and institutional investors understand that strong companies will continue creating value long after today’s geopolitical tensions fade.
For founders and executives, the key is not to react emotionally to the news cycle but to evaluate strategic options carefully.
Sometimes the most valuable deals are not the ones made during perfect conditions.
They are the ones made when others hesitate.
Dr. Allen Nazeri, widely known as “Dr. Allen,” brings more than 35 years of global entrepreneurial and transactional experience to the middle market. He serves as Managing Director at American Healthcare Capital and Managing Partner at PRIME exits®, where he advises founders, boards, and executive leadership teams on strategic growth, value optimization, and exit readiness.
Dr. Allen works with both privately held and publicly traded companies, helping them strengthen operations, enhance valuation drivers, and position their businesses for premium outcomes—whether through a full sale, recapitalization, or partial liquidity event. His approach combines operational insight with disciplined M&A execution, ensuring clients are strategically prepared long before going to market.
He earned his Doctor of Dental Surgery (DDS) degree from Creighton University and holds an MBA in Mergers & Acquisitions and Investment Banking from the University of Bedfordshire. Dr. Allen also holds the prestigious Master M&A Intermediary (M&AMI) designation, awarded to a select group of advisors who have demonstrated advanced negotiation expertise and a proven track record of closing complex, middle-market transactions.
As the author of Value Engineering: Strategies to 10X the Value of Your Clinic and Dominate the Market! and the newly released Selling Your Healthcare Company at a Premium, Dr. Allen is recognized for translating sophisticated deal strategy into actionable guidance for business owners.
Dr. Allen Nazeri offers complimentary valuations to founders exploring partial or full exit strategies and works closely with strategic acquirers, private equity groups, and institutional investors. Each year, he directly oversees successful sell-side engagements representing more than $1 billion in aggregate enterprise value across Healthcare, Engineering, Manufacturing, Robotics, Automation, and related business services sectors.
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